The impact of Sino-US trade war on the tissue paper market

Update:15 Jun 2019
Summary:

On May 9, the US government announced that since May 10 […]

On May 9, the US government announced that since May 10, 2019, the tariff rate imposed on the $200 billion list of goods imported from China has increased from 10% to 25%. This move violates the consensus of China and the United States to resolve trade differences through consultations, harming the interests of both sides, and is inconsistent with the general expectations of the international community. In order to defend the multilateral trading system and defend its legitimate rights and interests, on May 13, the State Council Customs Tariff Commission issued a notice on raising the tariff rate on some imported goods originating in the United States. The additional goods are as follows: 25% list of tariff goods (2,493 items of tax items); a list of 20% tariff items (1078 items) for the United States; 10% tariff items (974 items) for the United States; List of 5% tariff items (595 items of tax items)
The products related to tariffs related to household paper and related household paper materials are mainly concentrated on household goods plus 25% of tariffs and 5% of upstream raw materials such as wood pulp. Among them, the products such as wood pulp maintained the previous 5% tariff and did not increase the tariff, so it had little effect on the pulp.
According to customs statistics, the total import of household paper in China in the first quarter of 2019 was 6.58 thousand tons, including 4.15 kilotons of raw paper imports and 2.43 kilotons of finished paper imports, while domestic paper imports from the United States in the first quarter of 2019 were 0.85 kilotons. The proportion accounted for 12.92%, of which the original paper imports were 0.33 thousand tons, accounting for 8.05%, and the finished paper imports were 0.52 thousand tons, accounting for 21.40%. It can be seen that the Sino-US trade tariff on the US and Canada has a certain impact on household paper, especially the finished paper for household paper. However, due to the current oversupply situation of China's household paper, the total import volume is small. Even if the proportion of finished paper imported from the United States reaches 20%, overall, there will be no major negative impact on the Chinese tissue market.
China’s Ministry of Finance issued a statement on the 13th, a total of 5,140 US products with tariffs from June 1, which is clearly a response after Washington announced plans to impose tariffs on Chinese goods. The 5% tariff before the maintenance of the upstream wood pulp remains unchanged, and the household paper is subject to a tariff of 25%. This measure has caused some paper and paper enterprises to panic. However, Zhuo Chuang believes that the current domestic paper market is generally sold. Since March, paper companies in various places have lowered the price of paper to promote the inventory and clear the inventory. However, the inventory of paper enterprises is generally high, and the demand for terminals has not increased significantly. The paper mills wait and see. . In addition, the upstream market price of imported wood pulp is confusing, the price of pulp is falling, the support of cost is weak, and the short-term tissue paper market remains weak.

Sino-US trade is in a state of turmoil. It is also an opportunity and a challenge for the tissue paper market. Chinese paper and paper enterprises should improve the quality of state-owned brands and enhance their market competitiveness. As President Xi pointed out, the Chinese economy is a sea, not a small pond; squally showers can knock over small ponds, but they cannot overturn the sea; after countless squally showers, the sea is still there!